David Rathgeber's

Local Market Report

(there is no national real estate market)

November 2018

Very unusual market behavior this month. While there were expected improvements for sellers in Virginia, quite the opposite was the case in Maryland and Washington DC. The result was a significant, unseasonal market index increase to 2.7 months supply from last month's 2.3.

The changes are striking: Loudoun County is in the lead with 1.6 months supply (down from 2.0); followed by Northern Virginia at 1.8 (down from 2.0). Maryland and DC fell off the cliff, with DC increasing from 1.9 months supply to 3.6; and Montgomery County going from 2.6 to 4.0.

This could be merely a timing aberration that will be resolved in next month's results. However, monthly changes of this magnitude have never occurred in the 29 years that I have been tracking the market. For perspective, the monthly market index for DC increased only 0.8 (from 1.4 to 2.2) as a result of the World of Trade Center bombings on September 11, 2001. So, make a mental note to stay tuned and I will keep you on the front of the wave.

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The report above is prepared monthly from David's independent research for his clients. It does not contain important data for macro-economists, is not tailored for a TV audience, includes no national data, and is not prepared by the computer weenies at the MLS. Click this link to learn how this report is prepared and why it is the best available anywhere!

1. The market index represents the months supply of resale homes and measures the ratio of home buyers to home sellers. Below 1.5 is a hot sellers' market; 1.5 to 3.0 is a normal sellers' market; 3.0 to 5.0 is a neutral market; above 5.0 is a buyers' market.
2. Northern Virginia: Alexandria, Arlington County, and Fairfax County (including Fairfax City and Falls Church City).
3. Results are not seasonally adjusted.

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Arlington, Virginia, USA


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